GEX Report

GEX (Gamma Exposure) measures how much options dealers need to hedge, and which direction that hedging pushes the market. Short gamma means hedging amplifies moves. Long gamma means it dampens them.

Key Takeaways

1. Dealers are short gamma everywhere. Breakouts follow through. Fading is risky. The GEX flip at 664 is right at spot, so a rally above it could shift the whole regime.

2. Put/call ratio of 1.96. Nearly 2x more puts than calls. The 660 strike acts as a floor on selloffs. On rallies, dealers unwinding puts have to buy shares back, fueling a squeeze.

3. Near-term range: 660 to 685. Put wall at 660 (214K contracts) anchors the downside. Call wall at 685 caps rallies. Below 660, dealer selling accelerates.

4. Puts are priced at a premium. IV skew of +10.9% (put IV 37% vs call IV 26%) confirms the market is braced for downside.

5. OPEX pin risk: 70% of near-term OI expires 3/20. Price should gravitate toward 660-665 into Friday, then a vol release next week once those positions roll off.

Aggregate Dealer Positioning

Dealers are short gamma across the board. Breakouts tend to be real, reversals are sharp. The GEX flip at 664 is right at spot, placing us on the boundary between regimes.

Key Levels

660 is first support. 685 caps upside. If 660 breaks, next floors are 645 (monthly) and 630 (quarterly).

Weekly Range Call

• Near-term Range: 660 - 685
• Wider Support/Resist: 645 - 685
• Bias: Negative gamma plus heavy put skew favors downside tests

Near-term (0-2w)

Puts are stacked at 660 and 645. Calls don't show up until 685-700. Below 660, dealer selling kicks in.

Every major near-term strike has negative GEX, led by the 660 at -$207M. These are the levels where price stalls or accelerates.

The 3/20 expiration holds ~70% of near-term OI. Strong pin risk around 660-665 into Friday, with a vol release likely after OPEX.

Heavy call volume today at 670 and 675, suggesting upside speculation or short covering. Put volume at 660 shows the floor is still actively hedged.

Monthly (2-6w)

Put wall drops to 645 (104K contracts), call wall at 670 (29K). The 2.00 P/C ratio is even more put-heavy than near-term. If 645 breaks, 630 is the next floor.

Quarterly (6-13w)

Put wall at 630 (160K contracts) is the big line in the sand. Call wall at 700 (43K) is the structural ceiling. The 630-700 range captures where institutions have their hedges set.

Tug-of-War Zones

Strikes where puts and calls both have significant open interest. Small price moves here can flip dealer hedging direction, making price action choppy.