This scorecard grades the March 22 Chain Map against actual price action during the week of March 24-27.
Result
SPY opened at 658.07 and closed at 634.09, a -3.64% week. The sell-off accelerated Wednesday through Thursday after holding the 645 floor for the first two days.
Level Grades
| Level | Called | Actual | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot | 650 | Crossed both directions, closed 634 | BROKEN |
| Floor | 645 | Held Mon-Tue, broke Wed, gapped Thu to 633 | BROKEN |
| Ceiling | 670 | High 662.6, never reached | HELD |
The floor at 645 was the most valuable call. It held for two sessions and pinpointed exactly where the break would matter. Once 645 gave way, negative gamma amplified the move lower, just as the report warned ("breaks should extend, not fade"). The ceiling at 670 correctly capped the upside for the entire week.
Bias and Scenario
Bias: Called Neutral, actual was Bearish (-3.64%). The negative gamma warning was in the report, but the top-line bias did not lean bearish strongly enough. Miss.
Scenario: Bear scenario played out. The report called for "SPY breaks 645 on close" and "negative gamma accelerates move down." Both conditions were met. The target of "630 then 620" was partially reached with SPY touching 633.11.
What Worked
- The 645 floor correctly identified the key level. It held, then broke, then accelerated. This is exactly what the negative gamma framework is designed to flag.
- The 670 ceiling held without being tested. The call wall capped upside all week.
- The bear scenario conditions and targets were accurate.
- The regime call (full negative gamma, breaks extend) described the week's mechanics precisely.
What Missed
- Neutral bias should have been Bearish given the full negative gamma regime. Lesson: in negative gamma with spot below the pivot, default to bearish unless a specific catalyst argues otherwise.
Levels graded as HELD (never breached intraday), TESTED (intraday breach, no close beyond), or BROKEN (daily close beyond).