Archive
Prior weekly outlooks and chain maps, preserved with the data snapshot each report was built from.
Week Of April 13-17, 2026
Published for the week ending 2026-04-17, with each report pinned to the original context and supporting data used at publication time.
SPY flipped to positive gamma for the first time in weeks at 681, with the gamma wall at 685. Dealers are now dampening moves. The 660 floor and 700 ceiling define the range heading into April 17 OPEX (31% of OI). IV backwardation and elevated put skew say hedging demand hasn't unwound.
Grading last week's chain map. The 660 ceiling was smashed on Tuesday's gap (+17 points). The 630 floor was never tested. The vanna rally extended for a second week, with VIX dropping from 24 to 19 and SPY gaining 3.6%.
Week Of April 6-10, 2026
Published for the week ending 2026-04-10, with each report pinned to the original context and supporting data used at publication time.
SPY bounced 22 points to 656, sitting right at max pain in full negative gamma. A 1% VIX move now creates 48x more dealer hedging than a 1% price move. The 630 gamma wall is the floor, 660 is the immediate ceiling, and the April 17 OPEX (29% of OI) looms in two weeks.
Grading last week's chain map. The 630 floor held under pressure (intraday breach to 629, no close below), the 660 ceiling held for the second straight week, and the vanna rally call was spot on. Bearish bias missed the +2.5% bounce.
Week Of March 30-April 3, 2026
Published for the week ending 2026-04-03, with each report pinned to the original context and supporting data used at publication time.
SPY sits at 634 in full negative gamma with the 640 put wall as the nearest pivot. A 1% VIX move now drives 7x more dealer hedging flow than a 1% price move, meaning VIX moves will drive more dealer flow than price moves. 630 is the next floor, 660 is the first real ceiling, and the GEX/DEX regime is fragile support that holds until it breaks.
Grading last week's chain map. The 645 floor correctly identified the break point, the ceiling at 670 held, and the bear scenario played out as described. Bias call missed.
Week Of March 23-27, 2026
Published for the week ending 2026-03-27, with each report pinned to the original context and supporting data used at publication time.
SPY starts the week near 650 with oil still above $100, a Fed that cannot ease into an inflation shock, and a market waiting for either a Hormuz reopening signal or another push lower.
This week's SPY options chain sits in negative gamma with SPY at 648.57 and a practical pivot in the 649-650 zone. 645 is the first real floor, 670 is the first real ceiling, and a break outside that band should accelerate rather than mean-revert.
Week Of March 16-20, 2026
Published for the week ending 2026-03-20, with each report pinned to the original context and supporting data used at publication time.
SPY heads into March 16-20 pinned near its 200-day moving average as war-driven oil shocks, a high-stakes Fed meeting, and NVIDIA GTC create an unusually binary setup.
This week's SPY options chain shows a market pinned near the 664 flip, with a 660 put floor, a 685 call ceiling, and enough negative gamma to turn any break into a fast move.